Rainer Schuettler +3185 over Rafael Nadal (Risking 2/5)

Washington +144 (1)

I am not even going to try to rationalize these anymore. Hopefully Cueto is in a giving mood once again.

Phillies -112 (1)

The Wagerline split for this game is weird. I should probably just sit it out but curiosity has gotten the better of me.

Tigers/Mariners Under 8.5 -105 (1)

Okay, what the fuck?  The 1,000 run offense is going up against Silva and we can’t even get nine?  I know that Verlander has been pitching much better of late, and the Mariners suck something awful, but this number is still super low.

Marlins/Rockies Under 10.5 +111 (1)

I was going to play this at the 9.5 it opened at, so I will definitely take a crack at 10.5 with good juice.  So what if the ERA’s of Miller and Redman add up to almost 13.  I don’t care.

Los Angeles Dodgers -125 (1)

I am not gung-ho about this play. Split action road chalk is usually cause for a pass.  I must really miss Chad Billingsley or something.

Back in a few hours with the evening maneuvers.

I probably won’t win another golf outright this decade. At least that is the feeling I have been getting ever since the Kaymer pass. I did have success at the first AT&T sponsored event of the season. I am hoping to establish an extremely strong correlation between tournament sponsor and my ability to correctly forecast the winner.

Robert Allenby To Win Outright at 22-1 (Risking 7/10)

He was the 5th favorite at the beginning of the week and is now listed behind only Furyk and Mahan at most shops. Interestingly enough the ESPN forecaster is on him too. It’s probably too chalky, but I don’t think there are too many others out there pounding Allenby as a front runner.

Camillo Villegas To Win Outright at 33-1 (Risking 1/2)

This is the number that popped off the screen at me when I first looked at the odds. Sort of like Kaymer two weeks ago only I am actually going to play it.

Villegas has a ton of ability, and the field for this event is relatively weak, but this just seems like a very short number for a young guy who is yet to win on tour, especially considering that he missed the cut at Congressional last year.

The prices on this kid have been steadily declining and usually that doesn’t occur until after the break through win. I don’t know. Maybe the Colombian cartels have been consistently pounding him, and the books are just looking to minimize their exposure.

I also really like Ben Crane and Anthony Kim this week, but playing two of these per tournament is bad enough. Playing four would be retarded.

Matt Fargo is a Covers’ expert who is dedicated to improving his clients ability to win. Tonight he has given out Boston +133 over Tampa Bay as his daily free pick. After reading the rationale behind this recommendation I am tempted to throw down $400 for a monthly picks pass.

“I’m going back with Boston as the contrarian theory still holds true as the home team is now 11-0 in this series year to date after the Rays win again last night.”

The best thing about contrarian theory is that most people, including Covers’ experts, don’t understand how to properly apply it. We are talking about the Bo Sox, with Dice-K pitching, as a significant dog here. Obviously they are going to get a ton of action. Ergo they aren’t fucking contrarian.

“The Red Sox are seven games under .500 on the road for the season but the offense has been sufficient with a .269 average. It is also .279 over their last 10 games and facing a lefty starter has been good to it so far this season.”

So the Red Sox have sucked on the road, but never fear because their batting average away from Fenway is on the rise! Apparently you don’t have to pass a test on sabermetrics to get your Covers’ experts license.

“Tampa Bay has the second best home record in the American League but it remains a tough place for the home team to generate any offense. Over the last five home series, covering 15 games, the Rays have averaged only 3.7 rpg”

I am convinced that touts, not politicians, are responsible for the prominence of selective endpoints.

“The pitching has been outstanding at home but keeping the Red Sox offense in check yet again will be a difficult task”

I know this is a free pick and all, but if I am going to shell out $400 for a monthly picks pass, I’d like some elaboration with my unfounded statements.

“Three of his five career starts against the Rays have been quality outings including two of three in Tampa”

Should I make fun of the sample size, Dice-K’s career 60% ‘quality outing’ rate against Tampa, or the simple fact that he actually referenced quality starts in the first place? I can’t decide.

“It does not get much easier than last night as Fargo easily won with the Phillies +105 in the N.L. Game of the Month!”

Last night was July 1st. There are 30 days and roughly 300 games left in the month. Am I to believe that Fargo looked ahead at the rest of the calendar, calculating all the potential lines along the way, and decided that no side for the rest of the July would have the same kind of value that Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies possessed last night??

If that really is the case then you can forget the monthly pass, I want to subscribe for the rest of the millennium.

Tampa Bay -134 (1)